Yes I think it's a reasonable estimate. A large pharma could up those odds with a very large trial bc the drug probably works to some degree in some patients. Pfizer was ready to do a >2000 adult phase 2/3 study out of the gate to jump to the front of the line when they pulled the plug on sisunatovir (there were some DDIs etc). So they were ready to go big to tease out a treatment effect.