The last image of the Ohio State Buckeyes on a football field focused on a Michigan flag at the center of the Horseshoe. Any Tennesse vs. Ohio State predictions can be forgiven for wondering if Ohio State has successfully wiped that memory from its psyche enough to focus on the Tennessee Volunteers in the first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
The Buckeyes' downfall that day was entirely of the offense's doing, not the defense's, which held Michigan to just 13 points, seven of them coming thanks to a Wolverines interception returned to the two-yard line.
My free college football picks will continue to put faith in the Buckeyes' defense. It deserves that faith, and kickoff will confirm it at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 21.
Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Ohio Stadium in Columbus, with the game airing on ABC and ESPN.
Let's discard Josh Heupel's debut season at Tennessee to be fair with this coming trend; the Volunteers went 7-5 in the regular season, Heupel's offense needing more than an overnight to develop its rhythm.
But by 2022, Tennessee was humming, going 28-8 outright and 22-14 against the spread since. In those three regular seasons, the Volunteers have been underdogs exactly six times, three times against Georgia and three times against Alabama. Tennessee has gone 2-4 both outright and ATS in those moments, including 0-3 on the road.
Going on the road as an underdog is rather unfamiliar and uncomfortable territory for Heupel at Tennessee, certainly when going north to Columbus where temperatures will drop into the teens on Saturday night.
That hook might be worrying, but it is not as worrying as Heupel's experiences on the road as an underdog thus far.
When not facing Michigan -- yes, that is a notable exception, but sometimes rivalries and their defiance of logic should be discarded from other conversations -- Ohio State has won 26 straight home games. And let's note, plenty of those have been quality opponents.
Right now, Indiana stands as the No. 10 team in ESPN's SP+ ratings, the most widely accepted advanced rankings. Penn State finished 2023 at No. 5 in those regards. Take away garbage-time touchdowns and Ohio State won those two games each handily both outright and against the spread, exceeding bookmakers' expectations by 13.5 and 10 points, respectively.
Not for nothing, but the Volunteers currently grade as fewer than three points better than the 2024 Hoosiers and the 2023 Nittany Lions. Yes, Tennessee is better than both of those, but it is not so much better as to notably cut into what has been Ohio State's margin for error at home against anyone but Michigan.
In all the talk about the Ohio State drama following the Buckeyes' third straight loss to Michigan, we as a college football-loving community have failed to spend enough time discussing this defensive matchup. This has the lowest total of the four first-round Playoff games not only because it will be the coldest, but also because these are the two best defenses in the country.
Well, if looking at SP+ ratings, they are two of the top three, Ohio State at No. 1 and Tennessee at No. 3. In terms of expected points added (EPA) per snap against, Ohio State is No. 1 and Tennessee is No. 2, according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. In defensive success rate, Tennessee comes in at No. 1 with Ohio State at No. 2.
Any conversation of the best defensive lines in the country has to feature these two.
The falling temperatures will inspire some Under bets. The defenses should have sparked Under bets the moment this matchup was announced.
My best bet
Tennessee team total Under 19.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Josh Heupel's offense relies on dynamic receivers getting into space and a quarterback making single-decision reads. When it finds a receiver that can break coverages and has exact timing with the quarterback, it is a delight to watch. But when it does not have such a receiver or a quarterback with that perfect timing, it grinds to a halt against top-tier defenses.
No defense is as regularly stellar as Georgia's, but so as to add some heft to this sample size, let's also include Alabama's of the last three years. Set aside Heupel's first season in Knoxville as he remade the roster to run this offense.
In their six games against Georgia and Alabama across the last three years, the Volunteers have averaged 22.7 points. In 27 other regular-season FBS matchups, Tennessee has averaged 41.2 points.
Who is Ohio State more comparable to, Georgia and Alabama or the rest of the SEC? This year more than ever given the absolute thoroughness of the defense, the Buckeyes are more in line with the Bulldogs and the Tide.
Now realize that average of 22.7 points across those six games has been inflated by two home games against the Tide, including a 52-point showing in 2022. First of all, this weekend's task will obviously be on the road. Second of all, some of that scoring output came from Alabama's offensive design -- happy to put up points unlike the current Ohio State, a team built to win with its defense and its offensive line.
Remove those two games and the average falls to 15 points per game across four games.
The Buckeyes enjoy one of the best defensive coordinators in the country in Jim Knowles, someone who knows he has a defensive line that can create pressure without added blitzers and a defensive backfield that can hang with any receivers in the country. He will be able to employ just about any design he wants at any moment to hassle sophomore Nico Iamaleava, whose performances have been, charitably, up-and-down this season.