With the World Juniors around the corner, let's take a look at how the top of the 2025 NHL Draft is shaping up and what the tournament could mean for that conversation.
Depending on which NHL scout you talk to, you could get a different answer on who the best prospect is in the draft. As it stands now from my conversations, I would say 50 percent favor Erie Otters defenseman Matthew Schaefer, 20 percent of scouts favor preseason favorite and Boston College center James Hagens and 20 percent like Brampton Steelheads winger Porter Martone. Some outliers lean toward Saginaw Spirit center Michael Misa, Brandon Wheat Kings center Roger McQueen (who is currently injured) or Djurgarden forward Anton Frondell.
Today we'll highlight the front-runners who will be facing off against each other on New Year's Eve and their case for the top position. There is currently a lack of clarity at the top of the draft as to what order these players will be selected. I expect by Jan. 6 we will have more clarity, especially since neither Hagens nor Martone will be at the World U18s.
The scouts who favor Schaefer see a defenseman with the potential to be the next Miro Heiskanen. He's been excellent in big moments this season. He was arguably the best player at the Hlinka Gretzky this summer and at the CHL/USA Prospects Challenge in November. Given how good he's looked internationally, I could see him playing a big role for Team Canada at the World Juniors even though he's 17 years old.
Schaefer is a player without any notable flaws. He's an excellent skater with size, a high compete level and very good offensive touch who is expected to run a power-play unit for Canada. His offense may not be elite, but that wasn't the case with players like Heiskanen or Jake Sanderson at Schaefer's age, either. Schaefer is also miles better than the next-best defenseman in this draft class. If this ends up being a draft in which the team picking first thinks it's close among the candidates but has a more pressing need for a stud young defenseman, position could become a significant variable. Quite a few scouts view him not just as the best prospect in the draft, but as the clear best. If the draft was today, I believe Schaefer would be the top pick.
Hagens entered the season as the favorite for the No. 1 spot after an outstanding two years with the U.S. NTDP. His season has been very good as a leading member of a top team at Boston College. He's lost his clear claim to the top spot partly because he's been playing at a high-but-not-elite level, but also because the OHL players are having tremendous seasons. Hagens' biggest argument for the top spot in NHL circles is his position. He has the potential to be a first-line center in the NHL. He's a great skater and playmaker with dynamic qualities, but he's undersized. It would be easy to compare him to Jack Hughes, but he's not perceived to have quite that level of offensive talent. He's expected to be USA's first-line center and put in a position to make an impact in the tournament.
Martone has started this season on a tear in the OHL, scoring at a two-points-per-game pace for Brampton. He is a player with a ton of skill, size and compete. His projection as a big winger who can win a lot of puck battles and score at major levels is highly attractive for NHL clubs. The question with Martone for NHL teams is his pace. I don't think his skating is that big of an issue for his size, but he plays slowly, which could be a concern for higher levels. NHL teams will be highly curious to see how he fares in the tough World Junior games where the pace will be at its highest. If he shows he can play at those tempos, it would bolster his case for the No. 1 spot. He is expected to be a middle-six forward for Canada to start the tournament.
McQueen would have been in the mix for several NHL scouts before the season started. He's a huge center who can move quite well for a big man and is very skilled. He's been working through a back injury for months, though, and it's unclear when he will return to action.
I mentioned Schaefer and Martone above, but some OHL observers have argued Misa is at the same level as those two. Statistically, he is; he's dominating the OHL this season, displaying similar production to Martone but as a center and a better skater. I don't have his pure offensive talent or compete level graded quite as high as Martone's, though.
Finally, there is Frondell. He's gotten off to a slow start this season after missing time due to injury, but NHL teams still love this player. He has a ton of skill, has a great motor, can skate well and can score. His pure production hasn't jumped off the page like the other candidates, which is why I don't think he's in the 1A mix currently, but some scouts still see a player who can work his way back into that conversation in the second half.
I wouldn't rule out Moncton center Caleb Desnoyers going ahead of several of the names mentioned above either.