There are concerns and conjectures regarding the nature of the relationship between the United States (US) and Japan, a crucial ally in the Indo-Pacific given that former president and Republican party candidate Donald Trump returned to the White House on a significant mandate. The election was overwhelmingly focused on the state of the U.S. economy and its border security, but the impact of the result of this election reaches far beyond U.S. borders.
Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's Prime Minister remarked that he was excited to deepen the Japan-US partnership and congratulated Trump on his election win. In addition to emphasizing that this was his first meeting with Trump, he stated his intention to engage in in-depth conversations on strengthening their bilateral relationship.
The U.S. allies around the world need to figure out how they will respond to Donald Trump's "America First" approach to foreign and security policy again. This is also true in the Indo-Pacific region. The Biden administration has spent the past four years painstakingly assembling a global coalition of U.S. friends. Specifically, the Biden administration made progress in fostering cross-regional collaborations among U.S. allies through initiatives like the Quad and AUKUS. Furthermore, Biden's deliberate efforts to fund the strengthening of numerous mini-laterals in the Indo-Pacific area, such as the U.S.-Japan-Australia, U.S.-Japan-ROK, U.S.-Japan-India, and most recently, U.S.-Japan-the Philippines, led to the institutionalization of these ties to the degree of quasi-alliance. Now, countries like Japan are undoubtedly starting to question if these alliances will be strong enough to endure another four years of the Trump administration 2.0's "America First" strategy.
The idea that Japan is America's "indispensable ally" has gained popularity in U.S. foreign policy circles throughout the last ten years. Japan is now largely regarded as America's most significant partner in Asia, if not the globe, on a wide range of issues, from the urgent and shared need to counterbalance an increasingly assertive and powerful China to cooperative efforts to secure sustainable semiconductor supply chains.
This trend reflects a decades-old reality that is becoming more widely acknowledged: the U.S.-Japan security alliance is a vital force multiplier and enabler of U.S. strategic objectives in the Indo-Pacific, the most populous, economically vibrant, and geopolitically significant region in the world.
Japan has recently made unprecedented pledges to assist the complementary strategic goals of the allies, particularly in the area of defence. Tokyo's efforts to improve its defence capabilities, fortify the U.S.-Japan alliance, and more generally contribute to regional and global peace and stability -- including through increased cooperation with U.S. Indo-Pacific and European allies -- have accelerated dramatically over the last two years in particular.
Notably, the Kishida administration promised to "fundamentally reinforce [Japan's] defence capabilities" as part of its 2022 National Security Strategy, among other things, to prevent "unilateral changes to the status quo" by North Korea, China, and others.
Given the growing strategic challenges in the East and South China Seas, it is anticipated that greater emphasis would be paid to the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy, which is a pillar for both nations. Trump is probably going to pressure Japan to pay more on defence and assume greater accountability within the US-Japan security partnership. He can ask for increased budgetary support for the US forces stationed in Japan to increase the US military's presence there. Notably, Japan is home to about 54,000 active-duty US military personnel and is regarded as one of the Pacific's most strategically significant island states, partly because of its closeness to North Korea and China. Therefore, it is likely that Trump 2.0 would continue to step up attempts to militarily and economically isolate China by pressuring Japan to reduce its commercial ties with China. To manage its commercial relations with China, a vital economic partner, and preserve its security alignment with the US, Japan would be in a difficult situation. Decoupling from China and securing Japan as a partner in vital supply chains, especially for manufacturing and technology, would be Trump's top economic priorities.
Way Forward
Ishiba has been advocating for changes to the Status of Force Agreement (SOFA) and the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, which has not been altered since 1960. He has also supported the joint use of U.S. and Japanese forces at U.S. military bases in Okinawa, as well as the stationing of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) on American land. To cooperate "on equal terms with the U.S.," he claimed that Japan "must have its military strategy and become independent in terms of security," characterizing the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty as a "asymmetrical bilateral treaty."
Since the end of the war, Japan has had to deal with "the most severe and complex security environment." The Japanese administration wants to demonstrate the strength of Japan-US relations both at home and abroad in the face of this deteriorating climate.
Japan's foreign and security strategy continues to be based on the alliance with the United States.
The United States will undoubtedly put pressure on Japan to stick to its existing course of enhancing its defence capabilities and raising defence expenditures. The Trump administration is expected to pressure Tokyo to shoulder a larger portion of the cost of stationing American troops in Japan, making negotiations for the renewal of its Host Nation Support much more difficult. Tokyo will probably be under additional pressure under Trump to increase investments that create jobs in the US and strengthen its supply chain against Chinese influence. Because of this, Tokyo will find it very challenging to strike a careful balance between acting as a proactive ally of the United States and avoiding total isolation from China.
Even as common strategic interests highlight the partnership's future, the US-Japan alliance can look forward to a reinvigorated focus on trade, technology, and security. Japan's dedication to maintaining a stable regional order and its standing as a reliable US ally will continue to be the cornerstones of the alliance's strength, guaranteeing that common goals outweigh any conflicts. How the US-Japan alliance bolster their partnership under Trump's Presidency owing to the emerging security threats for Japan is a crucial aspect in the global domain.