-- Wheat for March delivery fell 1%, to $5.34 3/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, keeping prices range-bound in a shortened Christmas Eve trade.
Stuck in Range: Grains end Christmas Eve's shortened session mixed.
Corn futures were unable to break through the $4.50 resistance level at which cash selling was expected to emerge, according to a note by RCM's Doug Bergman. He added that Russia is prioritizing "securing access for their winter wheat to China," while warmer-than-normal weather "through western Russian wheat areas is expected to complicate overwintering of grains."
Soy Headwinds: Soybean futures recovered some ground.
Summit's Tomm Pfitzenmaier wrote that prices were moving partially due to fund short covering "and a little recovery rally in soybean oil as it bounces off of its recent lows."
Pfitzenmaier said recovery rallies could be hard to sustain. "The bigger problem for the soybean market is that the U.S. is sitting on ample supplies," while South American weather has been favorable for crops, in a threat to prices, he said.
INSIGHT
More Mexican Corn: The Mexican government is stepping up efforts to increase white corn production after a USMCA panel last week ruled that its ban on imports of genetically modified corn violates the trade pact. In a weekend visit to top corn-producing state of Sinaloa, Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegué said improved irrigation on some 130,000 acres is expected to raise production of non-GMO white corn by 50% in two districts. Sinaloa produces around a quarter of the country's 24 million tons a year of white corn consumption, he said.
Mexico is the top foreign buyer of U.S. corn, mostly yellow corn. Mexico uses white corn for making tortillas.
Quiet Farmers: "Farmer sales tend to dry up ahead of the new tax year, and the recent passage of $10 billion in farm assistance will likely keep farmer sales quiet for a while," StoneX's Arlan Suderman said in a note. He added that Brazil weather "remains quite favorable" and "a third of Argentina's grain belt is under developing stress."
In the U.S., the southwestern half of the Plains hard red winter wheat belt is dry, "although that's more of a story for March," Suderman said.
AHEAD
-- The USDA and Chicago Board of Trade will be closed in observance of the Christmas holiday Wednesday, and are scheduled to reopen on Thursday.
-- The USDA is due to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EST Friday.
-- The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 1 p.m. EST Friday.
-- Anthony Harrup contributed in this article.
Write to Paulo Trevisani at [email protected]