This is a hot topic. Excluding microcap stocks too small to mention, four of the 10 biggest gainers in the last quarter specialize in quantum computing hardware.
Investors and technology enthusiasts expect a lot from quantum computers. IonQ is the largest pure-play investment in this space, boasting a $6.5 billion market cap. Can this small quantum computing developer make early investors a fortune in the long run?
Let's find out.
In simple terms, quantum computers will eventually be able to solve problems that no digital computer could tackle.
These systems don't push electric current through a huge maze of predictable logic controls, like the computers (and calculators and phones and so on) you see today. Instead, they rely on intricate concepts of quantum mechanics in a probability-based way.
Quantum computers may not be great at solving mathematical problems with perfect accuracy, but they will eventually be able to optimize the living daylight out of complex real-world systems. Examples of quantum-friendly issues include analyzing genetic codes, cracking sophisticated cryptography, forecasting the weather, and training artificial intelligence (AI) systems.
Quantum computing can disrupt many industries while creating entirely new business ideas. But that promise lies in the distant future when the experimental systems on the market today have evolved into industrial-scale number crunchers.
How far away is that commercial success story? Well, tech titan and Alphabet (GOOG -1.16%) (GOOGL -1.11%) subsidiary Google recently published a milestone achievement in its quantum computer development. A system with 100 so-called qubits of processing power was able to do some simple error correction in a noisy computing project.
Error correction is a crucial part of these messy systems, so it's an important step forward -- but also a very small one. Google expects quantum computers to have commercially useful error correction in systems with 10,000 qubits or more.
So, IonQ faces an exciting long-term future alongside smaller rivals like D-Wave Quantum (QBTS 27.88%) and Rigetti (RGTI 19.93%). But the road ahead is full of dangerous potholes.
IonQ works in a very promising market niche and is better equipped than Rigetti or D-Wave to handle the quantum computing market's challenges. But do you dare to bet on an unprofitable small-cap business staring down several of the world's largest and richest tech companies in the open market? The biggest long-term winners here will probably be today's established household names and business giants. The rich get richer.
Some of today's quantum specialists may survive and thrive in the long run -- it's just too early to tell which ones. I see this sector as an amped-up version of the notoriously risky biotech industry. Drug development projects are expensive and don't always work out, sending many market darlings to an early bankruptcy. The same logic applies to quantum computing, too.
IonQ's recent price gains are impressive, but I prefer watching them from the sidelines. This stock might make millions for early investors, but it could just as easily go to zero instead.