Welcome to Week 16, and Round 2 of the fantasy football playoffs!
My main takeaway from Week 15 is that it was full of erratic quarterback play. Wait...Erratic is way too kind. Let's call it what it was: An epidemic of atrocious performance. It was the single worst league-wide display of quarterbacking this season. I get that when it's Week 1. But in Week 15? Come on, fellas.
Three quarterbacks were benched in-game this week (and all three of those will extend into Week 16, at least), and more deserved to be. A fourth (Kirk Cousins) is getting benched this week after yet another shoddy performance. Separate and apart from the benchings, the three "Alabama" quarterbacks combined to throw seven INTs on Sunday. Anthony Richardson, who completed 17 of 38 passes (OK, that's kind of normal for him), tossed in two picks for good measure. Even Justin Herbert, who hadn't been intercepted in more than 350 attempts, got picked off. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes suffered his annual late-season ankle sprain and Geno Smith (knee) also got knocked out of action in Week 15. We'll see if either or both can suit up for Week 16.
To be fair, Six quarterbacks delivered in a big way with 28 or more fantasy points (Goff, Allen, Jackson, Rodgers, Mayfield, and Hurts), but there wasn't much of a middle class below that echelon. And quite a few QBs, many of whom were in fantasy lineups, crapped the bed with 14 or fewer fantasy points. I'm guessing quarterback performances had a larger than normal impact on fantasy outcomes in Week 15. An example: If you started Brock Purdy and his five fantasy points on Thursday night, you're probably not reading this column in preparation for Week 16.
I'll stick with last week's format for the column. Fair warning: We could be in for a low-scoring week. There is no game with a Vegas total higher than 49, and as you'll see when you dig into the column, there are some offenses that are likely to struggle this week. See my Week 16 Waivers column for more on this week's best streamers (including at PK and D/ST), and pickups.
Coming into this season, Steve Young was the only QB in NFL history to have 340+ passing yards, 60+ rushing yards, 2+ passing TDs, and 2+ rushing TDs in a single game. Josh Allen just did that in back-to-back games.
In their last two games, the Bills have scored 90 points, while allowing 86.
The Bills have scored 30+ points in eight straight games. They're the fifth team in the Super Bowl era to do that within a single season. None of the previous four went on to win the Super Bowl that season.
Davante Adams had 135 receiving yards in the final four minutes of Jets-Jaguars.
Lamar Jackson on Sunday at the Giants: 5 TD passes, 4 incompletions.
The Steelers only had two possessions in the second half vs. the Eagles. Duringthat half, the Eagles ran 48 plays to Pittsburgh's 11.
During this season, Jared Goff won a game where he threw 5 INTs, and lost a game where he threw 5 TD passes. Make it make sense!
I've scrapped the "Rides, Fades, and Sleepers" format for the playoffs. Instead, I'll touch on every game and provide a couple of fantasy insights for each one. I won't waste much time with the obvious starts and sits, for the most part. This is the playoffs and nobody needs that. All fantasy points and rankings given are for Half PPR scoring.
DEN@LAC (TNF). If the season ended today, both of these AFC West teams would be Wild Cards and regardless of who wins this contest, both still will be in the driver's seat to lock down one of those three slots. What happened to the Bolts' defense last week? I think they'll be better this week, and this figures to be a pretty low-scoring game. Justin Herbert is banged up and he's no better than a mid-range QB2 this week. Ditto Bo Nix, who played some sloppy football against the Colts. I'm not starting any RB in this contest if I can help it. In fact, outside of the obvious (Courtland Sutton and Ladd McConkey) nobody in this game should be in lineups unless you're stuck. Both defenses have been pretty tough against most positions all year. Stone Smartt is an OK sleeper play at TE if you're in a jam, and Quentin Johnston has scored in two straight games if you're looking for a dart throw, although Denver has been as tough as they come on perimeter receivers. I could see each team attempting multiple field goals, so consider the kickers.
Saturday games:
HOU@KC. The big question here is if Mahomes will play. The Chiefs are in the middle of a brutal stretch where they play three games in 11 days, and they're up two games on the Bills for the #1 seed. The other question is if Hollywood Brown will make his season debut (and if so, will he play meaningful snaps). It sounds like both will play. As of now, the only Chiefs I'm starting with any confidence are Travis Kelce and Harrison Butker. The receivers are all Flexes at best with Mahomes gimpy and Brown likely to play. Isiah Pacheco has been disappointing since his return and I don't like the matchup (HOU has allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing running backs). On the flip side, I'll ride only the obvious (Nico Collins), and I'll again fade Tank Dell and C.J. Stroud. If you have Joe Mixon he's almost certainly one of your best options, but know that it's the single worst matchup for running backs, and temper expectations and especially with him at less than 100%. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest rushing yards, receiving yards and FPPG to opposing running backs and those rankings have been sticky all season. This is another game that could be fairly low-scoring, and where both kickers are solid options.
PIT@BAL. These teams met in Pittsburgh in Week 11, and it was your typical black-and-blue affair for this heated rivalry, with Pittsburgh prevailing 18-16. This is a huge matchup for control of the AFC North. Fantasy managers are hoping for more offense this time around, and with the way Pittsburgh struggled against the Eagles' WRs last week, it could happen. If the Steelers are again without George Pickens, I'd lay off Russell Wilson, even with the excellent matchup. In fact, I don't really like any Steelers (and that includes both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren against a very tough run defense) this week outside of Chris Boswell and Pat Freiermuth, who I think is a good low-end TE1. Start your obvious Ravens as you always would and that includes Zay Flowers, who is overdue (and who has seen at least six targets in eight of his last nine games). Rashod Bateman has flashed big-play upside and is Flex-worthy, although he sometimes disappears after a big game.
Sunday, 1 p.m. window
NYG@ATL. Michael Penix, Jr. is making his first start and that's the only reason to watch this game. Obviously, it's hard to know what to expect, but it does help that the Giants are dead last in the NFL with just two interceptions on the season. Still, I think it would take some guts to roll with Penix in his debut as a starter. Drake London should be a pretty safe play but with your season on the line, I'd be careful with Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney. Tyler Allgeier is always in the Flex conversation if you need him, and I think Atlanta will run it a lot on this depleted defense, and with Penix getting the startd. On the other side, regardless of which D+ quarterback starts for New York, Malik Nabers is the only Giant that clearly should be in lineups, assuming he is good to go. The two running backs are splitting the work and Atlanta is a tough run defense (sixth fewest FPPG and the second fewest rushing TDs (4) allowed to the position), and especially in a situation where they don't have to worry too much about the pass.
DET@CHI. The Lions might have one of those open tryouts this week so they can field a defense. The Bears' offense has been pretty terrible lately, but I think you can go contrarian and consider their main players if you need them, given the matchup. That includes Caleb Williams in a Superflex, D'Andre Swift (who ran well last week against a very good Vikings' run defense), and any of the three receivers as Flex options. Remember, the Lions couldn't stop the Bears in the second half on Thanksgiving and that was before these latest injuries gutted their defense. This game will be a stern test for the road version of Jared Goff, who has barely played outdoors all season and is facing the stingiest defense in the league for QBs (fewest FPPG allowed). He's hard to sit coming off last week but I'm not too confident. Sam LaPorta had his first 100-yard game of the season last week and the Bears have been more vulnerable to tight ends than wide receivers, so maybe you can finally have some confidence in him. Jameson Williams has big-play potential but is a Fade for me against this defense, outdoors.
ARI@CAR. James Connor is a smash play this week against the NFL's No. 32-ranked run defense (and most FPPG allowed to running backs to boot). Chuba Hubbard is also an auto-start. In the passing game, Kyler Murray should return to fantasy relevance this week in a very favorable matchup, and while he played poorly last week, I think Bryce Young can work in Superflex/2QB lineups if you need him. Marvin Harrison, Jr. is very boom-or-bust but this week is a decent spot for him. Adam Thielen and Jalen Coker are also playable if you need them, and I like Coker as a sleeper this week, with Xavier Legette out.
PHI@WAS. Is it finally time to play Devonta Smith without hesitation? Well, it never is, 100%, but maybe last week was a sign of good things to come. Roll with it in a plus-matchup. For the Commanders, Jayden Daniels is tough to bench but if you have other options, you have to think about it. I'm debating starting Murray over him in one league. The Eagles have allowed the third fewest passing yards and FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, and that's after a slow start. Daniels only put up 14.4 fantasy points in the first meeting between the teams and that's one of the higher totals that Philadelphia has yielded since Halloween. They're the hottest, and stingiest, defense in the NFL right now.
LAR@NYJ. Let's stay on the Aaron Rodgers revival tour if you need him as a low-end QB1 or a QB2, and you can play your other three obvious Jets as well. Breece Hall only saw nine carries last week, but that led the team, and he suffered no setbacks. He's an RB2 for me. It's a pretty favorable matchup for the Jets' offense despite what the Rams' defense did to the 49ers in the rain at San Francisco last week. For the Rams, it's also obvious week, and yes, that includes Cooper Kupp (although I bet a lot of Kupp managers aren't around this week to run him back). Matt Stafford is borderline for me (outside my Top-12 for the week). The Jets' defense was murder on quarterbacks (and wide receivers) earlier this season, but they've gotten more generous the last 5-6 weeks. Still, I don't love this spot for Stafford, on the road in the northeast in December.
CLE@CIN. There's not much to say for the battle of Ohio, as neither team is in the thick of the AFC North race. The Bengals have four guys you're auto-starting and not much else to consider unless you're stuck and need tight end Mike Gesicki. Jerome Ford is a strong start, but I'm fading the Browns' passing game with DTR taking over for Jameis Winston. Yes, even against the Bengals. His career passing stats (and advanced stats) are awful. If David Njoku plays, I guess I'd consider him, and if Jerry Jeudy helped get you here over the last month I understand the attachment, but that was all with Jameis.
TEN@IND. Keep an eye on Tony Pollard's status, as he was questionable last week and aggravated his injured ankle. If he is out, Tyjae Spears is in a great spot against a defense that's allowed the fourth most rushing yards and eighth most FPPG to opposing RBs. If Pollard plays, then I think both backs are in the Flex discussion. I'll avoid the Titans' passing game with the possible exception of Calvin Ridley, although I'd prefer to Fade him. Mason Rudolph isn't the answer, although he should protect the ball better. Anthony Richardson is what he is - a roller coaster who could realistically give you almost any fantasy score imaginable. If a huge swing is what you need this week, I get it. His receivers are also a crapshoot. Michael Pittman is probably the safest bet for volume, but I'd prefer to avoid everything on this uncertain offense outside of Jonathan Taylor.
Sunday, late afternoon Window:
SF@MIA. This game pits two 6-8 teams who had high hopes this season, only to see it all go wrong. Both defenses have been stingy at times this season, and both offenses have underperformed what were very lofty expectations. This game could be fairly low-scoring. Start the obvious (the two starting tight ends, Devon Achane, and Tyreek Hill) as you normally would. Isaac Guerendo is trending towards missing this game, which would put Patrick Taylor in Flex (at best) range. It's a risky play since we've never seen him get much work. Both quarterbacks could have bounce-back games but are likely going to finish no higher than the low-end QB1/QB2 range. San Francisco has allowed the fewest passing yards on the season, while Miami has allowed the second fewest FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Tua could be without Jaylen Waddle as well. Proceed with caution with both QBs. I'm still fading Deebo Samuel every week, and starting Jauan Jennings as a low-end WR2 or Flex. If Jaylen Waddle is out, Malik Washington is on my radar as a deep sleeper, as the team has been trying to get him more involved the last couple of weeks.
MIN@SEA. I'm assuming Geno Smith will suit up for this one, but I'm not sure about Kenneth Walker, and now Zach Charbonnet is nursing an oblique injury. If either back is inactive then smash away with the other one. If both play, then I imagine more of an even spilt than normal and it's a dicey situation against a very stingy, Top-5 run defense. I'll roll with both JSN and D.K. Metcalf - the way to beat Minnesota is to throw. Play your usual Vikings. It's not an ideal spot for Sam Darnold, who was pedestrian against the tough Bears' pass defense on Monday night, but if you need him he should be an OK, low-end QB1.
NE@BUF. In each of their last two games, the Bills have both scored and allowed more than 40 points. That's not happening in this game, and outside of Rhamondre Stevenson, how many Patriots can you trust? I do like Drake Maye as a QB2 this week, and I'd consider both Hunter Henry and possibly Demario Douglas as low-end starting options at their respective positions, as New England will be chasing points against a vulnerable defense. For Buffalo, the scoring has been amazing, but outside of Josh Allen and James Cook nobody is getting that big of a slice of the pie and it's actually been frustrating. Khalil Shakir is the only pass-catcher I trust in standard lineup formats. Amari Cooper had a donut last week, and Keon Coleman had one catch despite leading the WR corps in snaps. Dalton Kincaid has frustrated fantasy managers all year. All three are tough to start with your season hanging in the balance.
JAC@LV. Here's a game absolutely nobody should watch besides the players' families, although it does have major implications for the 2025 NFL Draft. Alexander Mattison should get the start at RB, but the Raiders haven't been able to run the ball all season (they're dead last in the NFL at 78 rushing yards per game). Ameer Abdullah had seven catches for 50+ yards and a TD last week, but that was with Desmond Ridder a quarterbacks. It's unclear who will start this week. Jacksonville has allowed the most FPPG and TD passes (27) to opposing QBs, so I think the Raiders' starting quarterbacks is in the QB2 conversation. I like Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers a lot more if it's Aidan O'Connell, but both are starts. For Jacksonville, I prefer Travis Etienne over Tank Bigsby, but neither is more than a Flex. Brian Thomas, Jr. is showing that he might be quarterbacks-proof, and assuming he suits up, Brenton Strange is a tight end flier you can consider if you're stuck.
Sunday Night:
TAM@DAL. Yes, the Bucs are now the only team with two healthy RBs who are solid, playable RB2s, and especially in a matchup like this. Dallas has allowed the fifth most FPPG to RBs and the second most total TDs (17). Bucky Irving and Rachaad White are both Rides this week. Jalen McMillan has three TDs the last two games and I don't think it's a fluke, as he's running a lot of routes out of the slot, in the Chris Godwin role, and the rapport with Baker Mayfield is building. Baker should smash again and is in the obvious start realm. Cade Otton's moment has passed and I'll continue fading him. For Dallas, Rico Dowdle is at best a Flex against Tampa's stingy run defense. Cooper Rush is a low-end QB2 if you need him. I don't like any of the Dallas pass-catchers this week other than the obvious (Lamb).
Monday Night:
NO@GB. The only Saint I'm looking to play is Kendre Miller, who won't have much competition for carries and is going against a middling run defense. Here's what I said about Green Bay's pass-catchers last week: The Packers' wide receiver corps continues to be maddening for fantasy managers and that will only compound if Romeo Doubs returns this week. I'm fine avoiding all of them if you have more reliable choices, even though at least one of them is likely to produce nice numbers. Well, last week that "one of them" was Romeo Doubs. This week it could be someone else. It's still a group without a true alpha, but multiple options, so none of them are reliable plays. Yet all have upside and that includes Tucker Kraft. You can run AND throw on the Saints and I don't expect a competitive game here. My shot in the dark this week is Christian Watson, who is second in the NFL at 21.2 yards per catch, but can't seem to find the end zone.
That's all I've got. Happy holidays, and good luck in Round 2 of the fantasy playoffs!