After dismantling the Bears 30-12 on Monday night, the Minnesota Vikings are 12-2, tied with the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles for the best record in the NFC.
According to The Athletic's playoff machine, which simulates games thousands of times and supposedly takes into account injuries, the Eagles and Lions are both projected to finish 14-3 while the machine gives the Vikings a final record of 13-4.
The machine makes the Lions a 49% favorite for the No. 1 seed, while giving Philly a 41% chance at the top seed and the Vikings only a 10% shot at the first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Let's dive into each team's last three games and look at their odds of winning.
Detroit Lions
Week 16: at Chicago Bears -- favored by 7.5 points and the machine gives Detroit a 75% chance to win.
Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers -- the machine gives Detroit a 51% chance to win, so this is a toss-up.
Week 18: vs. Minnesota Vikings -- the machine likes the Lions at home and gives them a 64% chance of winning.
Philadelphia Eagles
Week 16: at Washington Commanders -- the Eagles have opened a 2-point road favorites and the machine gives them a 54% chance to beat a Commanders team that has played one of the league's toughest schedules.
Week 17: vs. Dallas Cowboys -- the machine likes the Eagles by a ton and gives them an 80% chance to win.
Week 18: vs. New York Giants -- the machine likes Philly by even more in this one, giving them an 82% chance of victory.
Minnesota Vikings
Week 16: at Seattle Seahawks -- the Vikings have opened as a half-point road favorite and the machien makes this a toss-up game, giving Minnesota a 51% chance to leave with a win.
Week 17: vs. Green Bay Packers -- the machine likes the Vikings at 51%, making this another toss-up.
Week 18: at Detroit Lions -- despite all of the injuries the Lions have to overcome, the machine gives Minnesota only a 36% chance to win this game.
Does it all add up?
The Vikings have a very difficult final three games, though one could easily make the argument that Seattle is dealing with an injured quarterback (Geno Smith) and these aren't the same Seahawks that used to dominant at home. In fact, Seattle is 3-5 at home this season, including blowout losses to the Packers, Bills and 49ers.
If the Vikings don't win in Seattle, there's a scenario where they are riding a three-game losing streak entering the playoffs because the Packers are a legit threat in Week 17 in Minneapolis and winning at Detroit in the regular-season finale won't be a walk in the park.
Conclusion: Yes, it makes complete sense that the playoff machine is picking the Eagles and Lions to finish ahead of the Vikings. The No. 1 seed is within reach, but the Vikings will have to overcome a very hard schedule to get it.